recessions stemming from financial crises in the U.S. tended to be followed by faster recoveries. Bordo and Haubrich point out that the 2007-09 recession is a negative outlier.
The president's second problem is that his campaign rhetoric is inconsistent with the analysis of his own economic team. The Obama administration's economic advisers do not appear to have factored the Reinhart and Rogoff results into their analysis and forecasts, which have repeatedly called for an extremely rapid recovery.
The budget that Obama proposed shortly after taking office included projections of growth in gross domestic product climbing to 4.6% this year. Even after these early estimates proved incorrect, the administration continued to forecast high growth, always predicting rapid recovery around the corner.
Even today, while Obama is implicitly declaring that we are doomed to a slow recovery for five more years, the administration estimates GDP growth climbing to 4.1% in 2015.
These high-growth forecasts are not just academic. Those on Obama's economic team can justify the president's proposed tax increases only if they are willing to assert that growth will be so high that we can afford the drag associated with higher marginal tax rates.
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